Here We Go Again...

Friday I have a meeting with my doc. From a prior phone conversation, I know he will recommend that I have open heart surgery to replace a valve. Funny thing is after the summer and early fall months of feeling like crap, the past few months I have never felt better. I have a good job. My health has returned. And to top it all off I have L.


Downer is not the word to describe it. 2007 is shaping up to be bad sequal to 2006.

Vilsack out...

It was a shock to me.

Gov. Vilsack already out of the Presidential race. Nearly eleven months before the first caucus, and he already decides he can not do it.

Personally, this really lowers my opinion of him. What changed in the four months since he announced. No amazing unseen new candidate announced. He did not pull a Biden and say something remarkably stupid. Instead, he maintained his low-profile ho-hum approach.

Of course, I did not think he could win. But did he really think in four months he would go from 2nd/3rd tier to top material? Especially, while everyone else announced?

Come on, you have to give it a better shot. Why end your politicial career on such a weak note. At least go down in flames on your home state's caucus night fighting the entire way.

How quickly we fall?

Last Thursday, I was in the Hyatt in Baltimore. Now, I am in a Super 8 in Peoria. How quickly I have fallen? All for work.

Bad Coffee, Bad Day…

I spent from Saturday to Tuesday in Baltimore attending a conference of other non-profit Lukas. It was a time to share ideas, learn and network (a.k.a. drink at the bar).

M, E and I were to fly out on Tuesday, but due to the weather our flights were cancelled and this meant another night in Baltimore. Wednesday the weather was not improving, and with flights cancelled, we drove to Richmond, VA with hopes of a flight to Dallas and a connection to the Lou.

Valentine’s Day was not spent with L. E missed his pregnant wife and M her husband and two sons. Instead of a romantic dinner, I got bad decaf coffee at 10:45 on a flight to St. Louis.

At dinner in Richmond, I watched airport security pick up a serviceman holding an American flag on the tarmac. The security vehicle was followed by a baggage truck probably carrying the remains of a soldier.

On the flight to The Lou, I sat across from a man from D.C. who had been trying to get to St. Louis all day for his brother’s funeral the next day. In the process of catching whatever plane may get him there, he had been separated from a wife and grown child who may not arrive in St. Louis until after the funeral.

So, I had a bad day. I missed Valentine’s Day, lounged around airports, ate bad food and drank worse coffee. In the end, I get to go home. I will spent most of the weekend with L and hit the road again next week. But for one soldier, it was his/her final trip home, and one man will never share a joke with a brother. Why should I complain?

Doubt in Your Hometown...

Personally, I like Bill Richardson. I like him because he appears to be a competent Governor, was Ambassador to the UN who actually cared about the institution and can be linked to the success of Clinton’s Presidency without having the same last name.

Though he may not win the nomination, he appears to be stuck in the 2nd tier with even Chris Dodd gaining more ground then he. I believe he would make a great Vice-President. A person who ever wins the nomination should have on their short-list from the start.

Bill Richardson is also an excellent example of how hard the 2nd tier candidates will have it this time around. Dean could be against the war. Clinton sounded like someone who understood our concerns. But this year, the media has already staked its reputation on the nomination being between Clinton, Edwards and Obama. Nor is Richardson getting any hometown help.

Granted, the article has not been printed yet. But the fact that the Albuquerque Journal will run a story titled, Despite his resume, Richardson still has to prove he is a viable candidate, shows just how little love his run is getting from even his hometown media.

No Real Reasoning Behind This...

I have no real reason behind these predictions. They are just my gut saying what it thinks. At least, what it thinks in early February of 2007, about the first four contests of the Democratic Party and the order the candidates finish.


Iowa Caucus

Edwards
Clinton
Obama
Vilsack (who leaves the race after this)
Dodd
Richardson
Clark
Biden
Kucinich
Gravel


Nevada Caucus

Richardson
Edwards
Obama
Clinton (news stories flying around how Hillary is going down)
Clark
Dodd
Biden
Kucinich
Gravel

South Carolina

Edwards
Obama
Clinton
Biden (who drops out after this as the polls in New Hampshire do not look good, and he has been building a stand here for over a year.)
Clark
Richardson
Dodd
Kucinich
Gravel

New Hampshire

Clinton (news story: she finally wins one.)
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Dodd (who is out and should have been long ago.)
Clark (who is out and should have never run.)
Gravel (yes, Gravel will beat someone at sometime.)
Kucinich

In the end, it will be four candidates heading into Super, Super Tuesday: Clinton, Obama, Edwards and Richardson. In the end, I have no clue who the Presidential nominee will be. But I predict that Gov. Richardson will be the Vice-President candidate.

Well, Why Not?

Kinky ran for Governor of Texas on the slogan, “why the hell not?” Apparently, the people of Texas decided that being a song writer/country star/novelist is not the experience needed to be Governor. I am not judging the Texas voters decision, but the slogan got me thinking. Who is not a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, but could easily be a good nominee and why not President?

General Wes Clark ran a horrible campaign in 2004. He avoided Iowa and lost his lead in New Hampshire to the Kerry surge. He barely won Oklahoma and sputtered out after Wisconsin. Rumor has it, that Clark will once again seek the nomination. Clark still has a large support among liberal bloggers mostly from his stance of removing the troops from Iraq. But his stance on the war may not be his best draw. After all many of the Democratic candidates have the same stance on Iraq. However, he is the only candidate that is a retired General and what is more a former commander of all of NATO forces brining about a successful bombing campaign in the Kosovo crisis without loosing a troop. Should Iraq fall further into crisis or the saber-rattling with Iran continue a former General would make a formidable candidate. How could a man in uniform not support the troops? But if Clark runs an ineffective campaign in ’08 as he did in ’04, he will not find out if he can stand up to GOP attacks. Instead, he will find himself once again bowing out long before the convention.

After Chris Dodd announced that he was thinking of running for President, the media rolled its eyes. After all Dodd is a New England liberal who would be competing with the former nominee Kerry and the self-promoting Senator Biden for the mantle of representing New England values in a time they were not highly sought after by the party. The wind has shifted slightly. Kerry came to the same conclusion as everyone else and realized he would not win and dropped out. Biden started his campaign by making a comment that may end his campaign. Dodd is taking advantage of every free media opportunity to show he is in favor of a binding resolution against the war stopping Bush’s escalation. All of this seems to have broken him out of the third-tier candidates and into the top of the second-tier. Vilsack has been unable to gain any momentum after his announcement despite spending about half a million to do so. Richardson has become almost mute since his announcement. This has left Dodd the opportunity to rise. In the most recent National Review rankings of Democratic candidates, Dodd came in a surprising fourth behind HRC, Obama and Edwards. While it is not probable, Dodd will fine a way to surge to the top, he has a year to do it. After all a Senator for twenty-eight years and chairman of the finance committee is not a bad resume to be President.

So why not Clark? Why not Dodd? Why not Gravel, ok too far.

Aging With Joy Filled Responsibility…

Both J and T are going to be fathers. Life long friends, they were in the same grade in school, now so will their children be.

We are getting older. We are past young men and becoming responsible adults. As we age our indiscretions become fewer out of experience, maturity, and expectation, while our responsibility grows.

I am nowhere near having children myself. Yet, the joy I see in my friends faces and excitement in their voices, I know that is the time should come it is a hurdle into full adulthood that may be filled with the most fear and fun.

Biden's Fall...

And then there it is. One stupid comment ends Biden’s Presidential campaign the day that it begins. It may be a record for the quickest burn-up in primary entry. The sad fact is no one really believes that Biden is a racist. At the same time, Biden has never practiced the control needed to be a top tier Democrat. In another time, he would have been Kerry’s Secretary of State or someone’s VP. Now, he will just fade into the distance being a foot-note in Presidential campaigns going down in flames both in ‘88 and ‘08.

Rolling Arounf The Lou...

Saturday night, C and I spent the evening driving from bar to bar, hearing horrid bands and talking about relationships past and present. It was a meandering night with subjects and bars changing frequently. In the past months, I had not seen much of C, and it was good to speak with him again. Others find him different or his conversation strange. For me, he acts as a good cognac relaxing and calming me while stimulating my mind. After an evening with him, I had a better idea where L and I were headed and that was greatly needed. Now, if I could just get him to stop smoking.